1. Explosive pagers. Look, the Israelis having the wherewithal to make pagers, radios, and cell phones explode across the region on command is an undeniably slick piece of work. I’m in awe. I’m also suddenly very aware of exactly how many bits of electronics I have in close proximity to me every minute of the day… including the AirPods literally sticking into my head. I’m duly uncomfortable about this new tactic that’s now getting widespread attention thanks to its apparent effectiveness. It’s not something I’d want to see sweeping the world in the future.
2. Shutdown talk. It’s the magic time of year when the media is floating talk of a government shut down when funding expires at the end of September. All they’re going to do for the next two weeks is get my hopes up that a few free days of vacation time are in the offing before the political class pulls out a “save” at the last possible moment and we all boot up our computers on October 1st as usual. Years ago, I was more bitter about the prospect of a shutdown. Now that my finances are considerably more stable and the prospect of missing a check isn’t a stark raving nightmare, all I can tell these bubbas who want to shut it down is “bring it on.” I look forward to yet another opportunity to mock them mercilessly for being consistently unable to do one of the very few jobs that they’re required to do under the Constitution. If they’re going to be so incompetent, giving federal employees worldwide a few extra days off in the fall feels like the least they could do. Of course, until that sweet furlough notice shows up in my inbox, it’s all just talk.
3. Interest rate cuts. In keeping with my tradition of being a contrarian, I’m a little sad to see the Federal Reserve start cutting rates. Yes, I’m sure it’ll be good for anyone looking to buy a house or car and is a sure sign that the Fed thinks the worst of the inflationary pressures is over… but for the first time in my adult life, there was a reasonable return for cash parked in a “high yield” emergency savings account. Another few quarters of cutting and it’ll be back to looking for other savings options that preserve liquidity, compensate for inflation, but don’t introduce additional risk. Those 5% interest rates were good while they lasted.
Tag Archives: federal reserve
Nowhere near the panic button
Maybe if I were more financially savvy, I’d be alarmed by the collapse of several banks over the weekend. As it stands, I’m mostly just preparing myself to ride out some choppy financial waters in the short term. The markets don’t currently seem to be in a panic, so I’m opting not to be either. After all, if the markets do decide it’s time to panic, it’s mostly too late for me to do anything about it anyway.
Over the last 20-odd years, I like to think my approach to most financial contagion has been to shrug and keep buying every other week. As a young, new investor, I bought into the teeth of the collapse of the dotcom bubble, then through the Great Recession, and most recently through the panicked COVID-19 sell off. Not being a finance guy or an economist, most of what I know comes from history – and that’s that every squirrely period of economic chaos eventually ends. Over a sufficient enough period, every bad time, including the Great Depression, has ended with markets making new highs.
The trick, of course, is simply to hang on and don’t even think about locking in your losses. It’s a trick, because, as they say, the markets can absolutely remain irrational longer than you the individual can remain solvent. Assuming the House of Representatives doesn’t insist on allowing the federal government to default in a few months, I’m not especially worried about staying solvent. If it goes the other way, how well my philosophy holds up gets a bit murkier.
In any case, I’m nowhere near the panic button despite how much the finical news reporters insist on wringing their hands.
JEFFREYTHARP.COM 